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Bitcoin defies the Odds with $20,000 increase

“As it climbs again above the $20,000 trading zone, the leading cryptocurrency asset, Bitcoin, appears to be defying all known laws of gravity and effectively changing resistance into support.”



Bitcoin defies the Odds with $20,000 increase

As it climbs again above the $20,000 trading zone, the leading cryptocurrency asset, Bitcoin, appears to be defying all known laws of gravity and effectively changing resistance into support.

Because the asset and the market have historically fared favorably in October, sometimes known as “Uptober,” this has gotten bitcoin aficionados enthusiastic about the month.

Depending on one’s preferred method of technical analysis, the current surge has lifted the price of Bitcoin over a long-term falling trendline that dates all the way back to April 22 or last November.

The price of BTC has actually been trading sideways for the previous 114 days, range bound between $18,500 and $24,500, while it “consolidated” its way through the trendline.

Some traders are feeling a little jubilant about this recent rally now that the price is trading outside of the declining trendline. It’s important to remember that the surge has occurred with little to no change in significant macroeconomic indicators, which is insufficient to sustain a bullish outlook for the price of bitcoin at the time.

Since cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ether frequently trade alongside stocks, there has been a large degree of correlation between the cryptocurrency market and the equity market in terms of direction. Bitcoin’s price has recently risen, reaching a closing high of $20,365 yesterday as the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all ended the day with gains of 2% to 3%.

As a reminder, it’s crucial to keep in mind that short-term price movement isn’t always indicative of a more substantial trend change. Coin Metrics commented on this, saying, “Correlations between BTC, ETH and the S&P 500 have surged recently as the benchmark index decreased in price to 3600, which had not been surpassed since December of 2020.”

Although the stock and cryptocurrency markets have risen, wider worries about worldwide runaway inflation, rising interest rates, and other economic worries continue to dampen investors’ desire for trading, as shown by the third quarter results.

OPEC+, also known as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, announced plans to reduce oil production by 2 million barrels per day, or around 2% of the world’s total oil demand, yesterday.

Oil stocks rose after the announcement, but the White House is probably worried that the cuts will make it more difficult for the Federal Reserve to battle inflation and may even lead to higher gas prices.

Since the U.S. Fed is anticipated to take all necessary measures to guarantee that inflation is kept under control, this cartel action also enhances the prospect of even harsher interest rate increases. Higher interest rates will have a negative impact on all markets, including the market for cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin defies the Odds with $20,000 increase

While the decision may lead to an increase in interest rates, there is a counterargument that the recent job figures may actually temper the federal reserve’s aggressive interest rate hike strategy.

The U.S. Labor Department reported that there were 1.1 million fewer job opportunities in the country in August. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s contractionary monetary policy could terminate earlier than anticipated as a result of the decrease, which was the biggest since April 2020.

Some traders predicted a probable rally to $28,000 after bitcoin’s move above $20,000 liquidated $75 million worth of leveraged short (bear) contracts. The falling channel is still applying pressure, but Moustache, a trader who specializes in technical analysis, said that there might be enough force to challenge the upper channel trendline at $21,500.

Keeping an eye on the options and margin markets offers great insight into how professional traders are positioned. Investors can borrow bitcoin through margin trading to increase the leverage on their investment.

By taking out a loan to purchase more Bitcoin positions with stablecoins, for instance, one can increase exposure. Borrowers of Bitcoin, on the other hand, can only short the cryptocurrency because they are betting on it falling in value. The balance between margin longs and shorts isn’t necessarily equal, unlike with futures contracts.

The margin lending ratio for OKX traders has maintained close to 12, showing some degree of stability. The price of Bitcoin has increased by 5% since October 3, 2022, at the same time. The statistic is still optimistic because it vastly favors borrowing with stablecoins. Professional traders have consequently taken bullish positions.

The 25% delta skew is a revealing sign anytime arbitrage desks and market makers are overcharging for upside or downside protection because it indicates whether Bitcoin can maintain the $20,000 support.

When fear is prominent, the indicator will turn positive because the premium for protective put options is larger than the premium for risky call options. It compares similar call (buy) and put (sell) options. If traders anticipate a decline in the price of Bitcoin, the skew indicator will rise above 12%. Generalized excitement, however, exhibits a negative 12% skew.

Since September 21st, 2022, the 12% delta skew had been above the 25% threshold. On October 3rd, 2022, it did plunge below that level, indicating options traders are pricing a similar risk of unforeseen pumps or dumps. This indicator shows traders’ concern whenever it rises above 12% and shows that they are not interested in providing downside protection.

The OKX margin lending rate is currently below 12% and shows whales and market makers keeping their optimistic bets following the 5% BTC price increase on October 4th, 2022, in spite of the neutral Bitcoin options indicator.

In general, institutional investors like Citi and Goldman Sachs anticipate that stocks market volatility will persist. As a result, both of these firms have lowered their end-of-year projections for the S&P 500, and investors continue to forecast a negative year in 2023.

All things considered, global inflation is still high, corporate earnings estimates are being revised downward, and the Fed appears confident and steadfast in its current efforts to lower inflation.

These developments do not encourage investors to take on more risk though, and given that Bitcoin is correlated with equity markets and sensitive to news that is unfavorable on the economy, it seems unlikely that BTC breaking through the falling trendline will signal a shift in trend.

A break of the range and a string of daily closing above $25,000 would be more convincing developments.

In the end, the general positive mood may have helped Bitcoin break the $20,000 resistance, but that does not always mean that experienced investors are at ease with the current price levels.


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UK Government To Set Online Bill Criminalizing Self Harm



UK Government Sets Online Bill To Criminalize Self Harm

In an effort to stop what it calls “tragic and preventable deaths caused by people seeing self-harm content online,” the UK government has announced it will further broaden the scope of online safety legislation by making encouraging self-harm a crime.

According to the most recent modification to the divisive but popular Online Safety Bill, in-scope platforms would be compelled to remove anything that purposefully encourages someone to physically harm themselves, or face legal repercussions.

The government intends to tackle “abhorrent trolls urging the young and vulnerable to self-harm,” according to the secretary of state for digital. People who post such content online may also be prosecuted under the new offence of encouraging self injury.

The maximum fines will be announced in due time, according to the administration.

In the UK, it is already unlawful to promote or aid suicide, whether in person or online. By creating a new offense, self-harm content will now be subject to the same laws that already ban suicide promotion.

Following a snag, last summer associated with political unrest in the ruling Conservative Party, the Online Safety Bill’s progress through parliament is now on hold. However, the newly reorganized UK government has declared that it will reintroduce the measure to parliament next month after making changes to the law.

The abuse of intimate imagery is a problem that will be addressed by recent revisions to the Online Safety Bill, which was just made public by the Ministry of Justice. However, other revisions are planned regarding “legal but harmful” information, thus the final form of the Act is still up in the air.

The government responded to concerns about the bill’s impact on online freedom of expression a few months ago. The (new) secretary of state, Michelle Donelan, announced in September that she would be “editing” the bill to lessen concern about its impact on “legal but harmful” speech for adults.

The most recent changes, making it illegal to send online communications encouraging self harm, came after that announcement.

UK Government Sets Online Bill To Criminalize Self Harm

Donelan was quoted by the BBC as claiming that Molly Russell, a 14-year-old teenager who committed suicide five years ago after watching thousands of online articles on self-harm and suicide on websites like Instagram and Pinterest, was a factor in the most recent changes.

Social media was found to have contributed to Russell’s death, according to the results of an inquest into her death in September. While the coroner’s “prevention of future deaths” report from last month that a number of steps be done to control and monitor young people’s access to social media content.

The addition of the crime of promoting self harm, according to the Department for Digital, Culture, Media, and Sport, will outlaw “one of the most worrying and prevalent internet harms that now falls below the threshold of criminal behavior.”

Donelan stated in a statement:

“I am determined that the abhorrent trolls encouraging the young and vulnerable to self-harm are brought to justice.

“So I am strengthening our online safety laws to make sure these vile acts are stamped out and the perpetrators face jail time.

“Social media firms can no longer remain silent bystanders either and they’ll face fines for allowing this abusive and destructive behaviour to continue on their platforms under our laws.”

Hate crimes, rules regarding revenge porn (including disseminating deepfake porn without content), harassment, and cyberstalking are among the other top criminal offenses already mentioned in the bill.

Regardless of what the measure states on paper, there are still a lot of unknowns regarding how platforms will react to having legal obligations imposed on them to police all forms of speech, as well as if it would actually increase web user safety as claimed.

Critics worry that the regime will have a chilling effect by turning platforms into de facto speech police and encouraging them to overblock content in order to reduce their legal risk of paying a hefty fine.

The regime’s penalties scale up to 10% of global annual turnover, and non-cooperative senior executives even run the risk of going to jail.

On Monday, December 5, the bill is scheduled to return to parliament.








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Twitter Amnesty Is What Elon Musk is Going For Next



Twitter Amnesty Is What Elon Musk is Going For Next

Tesla CEO and newly appointed Twitter CEO, Elon Musk did promise a new dimension for the micro-blogging social media platform prior to taking over, and his actions recently, have just about lived up to the promise, but now, the billionaire is set for an ‘amnesty’ that surely will drive some political divides nuts if certain individuals are granted Twitter amnesty as he wants.

Elon Musk announced on Thursday that starting the next week, Twitter will provide suspended accounts “a general amnesty.” The day before, the platform’s CEO published a poll asking users if they thought affected accounts should be restored.

The announcement comes just after Musk lifted the platform’s restriction on former president Donald Trump after conducting a related poll. Trump declared he had no intention of returning to the platform despite being banned following the attack on the US Capitol on January 6, 2021.

Users of the Twitter platform who had their accounts suspended could rejoin the network “assuming they have not broken the law or engaged in egregious spam,” according to Musk’s user survey.

Twitter Amnesty Is What Elon Musk is Going For Next

The survey received responses from about 3.2 million individuals, who voted 72.4% in favor of amnesty.

“The people have spoken. Amnesty begins next week. Vox Populi, Vox Dei,” Musk said, using a Latin phrase that means “The voice of the people is the voice of god.”

Historically, Twitter has deactivated accounts who advocate violence, celebrate hate and harassment, or persistently disseminate false information that may be harmful.

Some well-known people who were banned from the website include MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell, who made a number of claims that Trump actually won the 2020 presidential election, former Trump advisor and former executive chairman of Breitbart Steve Bannon, who said Anthony Fauci and FBI Director Christopher Wray should be beheaded, and Proud Boys founder Gavin McInnes, who broke the website’s rule against violent extremist groups.

Considering that more voices with possibly negative views will be returning to the site, it’s unclear from Musk’s brief post how Twitter will handle content control going forward.

These worries have only grown as a result of Musk’s huge firings and the outflow of workers who would rather leave than remain “hardcore.”

Elon Musk is surely growing more unpopular by remaining popular these days.

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Twitter Working On New Feature For Long Texts



Twitter Working On New Feature For Long Texts

Writing a thread on Twitter can be considered daunting especially when you have to divide the text into 280-character sections for it to make meaning.

Good news though as the platform is stated to be working on a way to convert lengthy texts into threads automatically.

When a tweet exceeds the 280-character limit, Twitter’s composer will automatically divide it into a thread, according to a tweet from app researcher Jane Manchun Wong.

Twitter wants to make making threads less difficult, as she stated in a message to a user (identified as me).

Currently, in order to add a tweet to a thread and post the subsequent 280 characters, users must click the Add button. This can be particularly unpleasant when you are trying out an idea or pasting information from another document.

Several users have recently brought up the difficulty posting to and reading conversations with more than a few tweets; the thread in question was 82 tweets long and focused on the defunct crypto-currency exchange FTX. In response, Musk stated that the team is working to make thread writing simpler.

It will be useful to have markers to designate the start and end of a tweet in the thread, although the exact implementation details remain unknown, as Financial Times product manager Matt Taylor noted. This makes it simpler for users to change the text in a way that doesn’t disrupt the reading flow.

Musk has previously addressed the problem of posting lengthy tweets. He previously stated that the social network is developing the capability to attach long-form content to tweets. If that will be a standalone feature from the new thread composer is unclear.

Currently, some users rely on third-party programs like Typefully, ThreadStart, and Chirr App, which offer capabilities like scheduling along with tools to automatically divide your post into threads without interfering with sentence flow.

Thanks to its acquisition of Threader the previous year, the company today provides Twitter Blue customers with a simple way to read threads. However, Musk hasn’t actually stated whether he is altering the reading experience for the typical user.

There is already a long-form writing program on Twitter called Notes, but it is exclusively available to a small number of writers, and under Musk’s leadership, its future is unclear.

Even though Twitter programmers are already working on it, it is unclear when the new composer tool for threads will launch. Since taking over the business, Musk has let go of more than half the employees.

Numerous executives have left, and the new leader even gave the remaining employees yesterday an ultimatum: either be “hardcore” or quit. There is no assurance that goods will be delivered on time in this situation.

The new Twitter Blue plan with a verification mark was hurriedly launched by the firm, only for the scheme to be discontinued a few days later. Musk stated earlier this week that the launch date had been moved to later in the month.

Wong just found code that suggests Twitter is working on encrypting direct communications from end to end.


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